GENERAL28 Sept 2026
El Nino may turn 'very strong' by late 2026, raising risks for India: IRI
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society says El Nino is strengthening and may turn very strong in late 2026 and early 2027. Its Nino 3.4 index hit +3.0°C in mid-September. For India, this pattern usually means weaker monsoon rain and possible crop stress, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset it. Watch rainfall updates closely.
Key Statutory Highlights
- The Nino 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September.
- All 22 models surveyed by IRI forecast very strong El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter.
- IRI puts the probability of El Nino at 100 per cent through February 2027, falling to 61 per cent by mid-2027.
Actionable Advice for Taxpayers / Founders:Keep following IRI and monsoon rainfall updates, and review your crop, water and input plans early, since IRI itself says this forecast does not give a precise rainfall or agricultural-output figure for India.
Statutory Disclaimer: TaxQue Shorts are AI-assisted editorial briefs for compliance awareness. This brief has not passed every source check; confirm the original notification before acting. This does not constitute formal legal or CA counsel.
TaxQue News Desk
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